OK a bit of plain English on the R rate.
HMG are quoting figures at us on a regular basis. What do they mean?
The R number is currently anything between 1.1 and according to the New Scientist 1.7 in the UK.
So what you may say?
Well if the R rate is 1 it means an infected person is likely to infect 1 other person. If its 2 then two other people. If its.0.5, 2 people may infect another.
So not huge numbers yet. But….if the R rate is below 1 the disease or infection will die out at some point and the lower it is the quicker that will happen. It also gives scientists their greatest ally…time. That gives them a chance to study the disease, virus, infection, test, develop cure or inoculation and test again. Then people can have a true defence, and the virus will likely die out.
Vaccinations have killed viruses to the point of Extinction such as smallpox which was a true killer. They have also reduced the R rate with disease such as TB, measles, mumps, and even malaria.
Heard immunity worked to a degree for a while with chickenpox, however that seems to have mutated and people now can catch it more than once.
Polio is another extreme illness that was almost quashed by vaccine. When I was a child it was rife. Now it’s extremely rare in most western countries and has been lowered in most of the world, however its said whilst one child has polio all children are at risk.
So in the UK the R rate for SARSCOVID19 is above 1.this means it is likely every person infected will reinfect another person and possibly more. So even with sensible measures such as social distancing and masks that most of us observe, people are being infected and the disease infection rate the ‘reproductive’ R rate is growing.
Now fair enough you might not think this a huge issue but…..think of it this way:
On day one you have a grain of rice. On day 2 you have 2 grains of rice, day 3 you have 4, day 4 you have 8, day 5 you have 16, day 6 means 32, day 7 is 64, day 8 is now 128, day 9 becomes 256, day ten is 512, day 11 and you suddenly have 1024 pieces of rice, or cases of SARSCOVID19. You see how it grows. That’s base’s on an R rate of 2. Now even at 1.1 it grows at a scary rate, we in the UK are already on what New Scientist estimates as 1.7 although HMG puts it lower between 1.1 and 1.5 possibly in Scotland.
How many days since it started? Well for WHO to take notice the global R rate would probably have been above 1 for some time. So given in the UK its been above one again for a couple of weeks according to HMG we are already looking at big numbers. The thing is unless we take steps the R rate keeps rising. The Measles R rate in unvaccinated regions is 15. That’s why its so dangerous, along with the deaths and lasting damage.
In the UK people haven’t seen the effects so far that the movies nor our media outlets would have us believe, so people are feeling at best complacent but at worse arrogant or even defiant. Many believe we have been lied to, that things like nightingale hospitals were purely for scaremongering. Sadly I do not believe that. I believe even now people are being told to stay at home. I believe that most people are not being diagnosed with Covid19. If a doctor suspects you have it but you are not tested you will not be recorded as having it.
If you did sadly die at home it’s unlikely your death will be recorded as SARSCOVID19.
Many who do not survive have secondary illnesses such as chronic autoimmune diseases/syndromes. Often their causes of death may be recorded as those, and there will be no post mortem.
People now it seems over 45 may be automatically presumed to be DNR unless they themselves state legally that is not the case.
Children and adults with severe underlying illness may also be DNR some sources claim. I have personally seen and disclosed evidence of GP practices registering patients as DNR with no consultation with the patient.
The entire situation currently is a mess, we have a government clearly using the pandemic to bring in draconian laws to control the populace not only from COVID19 but also to give themselves authority to qwell any political unrest due to situations such as BREXIT. We have people using the constant misinformation to contrive all sorts of conspiracy theories about the virus, to the point of claiming it does not exist. Sadly I know too well that it does exist, that it kills, that it leave longlasting horrific issues to many and to many more it is weeks of feeling more ill and in pain than many have ever experienced.
Now having said all this I am no doctor or scientist. I have however been there giving support and an ear to nurses who have been suicidal for all they have seen on Covid wards, in care homes and in the community.
I have listened to too many folk who have lost family members to this virus. I have since April been the founding member of an organisation that has enabled the transport and distribution of millions of items of PPE throughout Britain and even to other countries complete free of charge. Despite the government stating it was not required.
Beyond all else I have been a son, brother, father and friend throughout this horrific time and lived with the same constant worries, even terror of losing someone I hold dear, and I can tell you I truly know how much that hurts.
This is my view on the current situation.
If you want to stop the government bringing in more controlling and restricting legislation or even soon possibly marshal law, you need to simply use common sense, recognise the risks and do everything you can to minimise those risks. We need the R rate below one ASAP and using a little brain power, a bit of empathy and morality is going to be the only way we achieve this and retain the image of being free we all hold at this current time.
That does not mean we continue in subservience, it does not mean an end to demonstrations nor an end to direct action if required, it means we pick our battles and act responsibly in regard to the virus, to change the future for the better.
OK a bit of plain English on the R rate.